On pages 58-59 of The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about an experiment by P.C. Wason.  Wason gave his subjects a number sequence – 2, 4, 6 – and asked them to try to guess the rule that generates the sequence.  In order to guess the test subjects produced other three-number sequences.  They were ten told “yes” or “no” depending on whether or not their sequences fit the rule.  The correct answer was “numbers in ascending order” but very few people got it right.  In order to see the rule, people would have had to provide number in descending order, or out of order – but very few people tried those sequences.  Generally, the subject would come up with a hypothesis of what they thought the rule might be and try to confirm it through their guesses.  Taleb goes on…

But there are exceptions.  Among them figure chess grand masters, who, it has been shown, actually do focus on where a speculative move might be weak; rookies, by comparison, look for confirmatory instances instead of falsifying ones. But don’t play chess to practice skepticism.  Scientists believe that it is the search for their own weaknesses that makes them good chess players, not the practice of chess that turns them into skeptics.  Similarly, the speculator George Soros, when making a financial be, keeps looking for instance that would prove his initial theory wrong.  This, perhaps, is true self-confidence: the ability to look at the world without the need to find signs that stroke one’s ego.

What’s interesting about all of this is my own perspective.  I find myself wanting to ignore the negative.  I want to dodge the weak points in my speculations.  Rather, I want to bolster my own confidence, my own ego by proving that my way is right.  When, in reality, I would go further faster if I failed faster by shooting down my own ideas.  Oh to be that self-confident.

Tags: Failing, Self-Confidence, Speculation, Weakness

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 28th, 2010 at 8:07 am and is filed under Thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.