“…What we call ‘talent’ generally comes from success, rather than the opposite.  A great deal of empiricism has been done on the subject, most notably by Art De Vany, an insightful and original thinker who single mindedly studied wild uncertainty in the movies.  He showed that, sadly, much of what we ascribe to skills is an after-the-fact attribution.  The movie makes the actor, he claims – and a large dose of nonlinear luck makes the movie.”

from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan, pages 30-31

I’ve been reading the book The Black Swan.  It’s a very interesting book, but the above quotation really caught my eye.  I do think that “success” is largely based on circumstance and that people generally step into the role they’re given.  If much is expected, much will be returned.

From what I understand, something like this happens in the armed forces.  I have heard people say that you have no idea what you can do physically until you’re pushed to your limits.  Evidently the armed forces have a way of pushing people up to their limit, but not (usually) beyond.

Of course, what the book is talking is as much about fame and social standing as it is actual skill.  But I like the idea.  If I am put in a place, with the right motivations (I don’t like to fail, I have some reward, etc), I will generally succeed.  And looking back, people will say “see, Philip was the right person for that job, no one else could have done it.”  When in reality, my ability to do the task probably hinged on my being assigned the task and my own motivations rather than my actual skill level.  There are many people with adequate skill – just not many with the same opportunity.

However, once given that opportunity, and that success, I think some of the skill then becomes legitimate.  For instance, only a handful of players in the NBA have played in the Finals.  By circumstance, they have an advantage over everyone else.  But that experience has made them better as well.

This is all very interesting.  Ultimately my faith plays in at some point, but I won’t get into the details now.  Generally though, it is best to look to acquire the skills of your peers and above, but also to hunt for opportunities.  The two together seems to breed success.